Long-Term Forecasting of Peak Demand, Electric Vehicles, and Distributed Energy Resources

METSCO developed a 25-year load forecasting model for an Ontario utility that predicts both system peak load and non-coincident peak load for transmission station (TS) buses from 2022 to 2046. 

Initially, a multivariate regression model was used to provide a system-wide base forecast. A Monte-Carlo simulation was used to account for variability of the weather and economic conditions. Historical trends were analyzed to predict how the forecasted system peak would affect the non-coincident TS bus peaks. Four additional scenarios were layered on top of the TS bus forecast: Data Centres, Electric Vehicles, Conservation and Demand Management, and Distributed Energy Resources.

The analysis led to a comprehensive load forecasting model that predicts peak load growth across the utility’s service area both at the bus-level and system-wide.  Ultimately, this model provided the utility with capacity planning insight and the results will help to meet the electricity demands of both residents and businesses in Ontario over the next 25 years.  

Projects Stats 

Stat 1: METSCO projects more than 1,340,000 electric vehicles by 2046

Stat 2: Achieving Net Zero goals would result in a peak load offset of more than 1,800 MVA from solar panels alone in Summer 2046